Chile Plans to Build New Copper Smelting Blast Furnace; LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Futures: LME copper opened at $10,142/mt overnight, fluctuated considerably initially and touched a high of $10,168/mt, then the center of copper prices gradually moved downward and approached a low of $10,104.5/mt near the end of the session, finally closing at $10,117/mt, down 0.71%, with a trading volume of 17,000 lots and open interest of 292,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2511 opened at 81,060 yuan/mt overnight, the center of copper prices gradually moved upward initially and touched a high of 81,230 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward and touched a low of 80,870 yuan/mt, finally closing at 80,910 yuan/mt, down 0.22%, with trading volume reaching 22,000 lots and open interest reaching 178,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On September 15, Reuters reported that Chile's state-owned mining company ENAMI has attracted attention from about 15 miners, traders, and financial institutions for financing approximately $1.7 billion for the modernization project of the Hernán Videla Lira blast furnace in Atacama. Potential participants include Rio Tinto, Mercuria, Vitol, Orion Resource Partners, and several international banks. After the project is completed, the blast furnace's annual copper concentrates processing capacity will reach 850,000 mt, producing approximately 240,000 mt of copper cathode. The preliminary offer deadline is the end of October, followed by a binding bidding phase.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On September 16, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2510 contract were reported at a premium of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 140 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 75 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 80,880–81,360 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2510 contract continued to fall from 81,380 yuan/mt, approaching around 80,700 yuan/mt near 11 a.m. The inter-month price spread was almost flat, and the import loss for SHFE copper front-month contract was around 500 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, copper prices slightly corrected but remained high at around 80,000 yuan/mt, downstream buying interest was weak, but warrants have not been released in large quantities, and Shanghai spot copper is expected to remain stagnant above the parity line.

(2) Guangdong: On September 16, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported at a premium of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 70 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 40 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 70 yuan/mt to a discount of 50 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 60 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 81,240 yuan/mt, up 405 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 81,140 yuan/mt, up 405 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, continuously high copper prices suppressed downstream consumption, and overall trading was quiet.

(3) Imported copper: On September 16, warrant prices were $50–60/mt, QP September, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $50–62/mt, QP October, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $20–30/mt, QP October, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day, quotations referred to cargoes arriving in late September and early October.

(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on September 16, the futures closing price was 80,840 yuan/mt, down 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 75 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials fell 100 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 74,000-74,200 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,085 yuan/mt, up 21 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,200 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, after copper prices pulled back, suppliers of recycled copper raw materials quickly adjusted their purchase prices for recycled copper raw materials, but sales offers remained firm, resulting in insufficient procurement volume for some secondary copper rod enterprises. Some suspended secondary copper rod offers during the day, focusing on completing orders on hand.

(5) Inventory: On September 15, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 1,675 mt to 150,950 mt. On September 16, SHFE warrant inventories increased by 3,049 mt to 33,692 mt.

Price: On the macro front, although the US August retail sales MoM recorded 0.6%, higher than expected, market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut remained unshaken. The US dollar index closed down 0.71%, providing some support to copper prices. On the fundamental side, supply side, mainstream brand sources were relatively tight, but supplies from surrounding regions and non-standard copper supplemented the market, making overall supply relatively loose. Demand side, high prices severely suppressed downstream purchase willingness, and market wait-and-see sentiment was strong. Under the dominance of fundamental pressure, copper prices eventually closed under pressure overnight. Overall, copper prices are expected to encounter resistance today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]